Task 12 — Evaluate Problems and Score

Weighted Scoring Rubric

Five Axes, Three Candidates, One Winner

Each problem scored 1–10 on every axis. Polygon area tracks the weighted total. Stage-blue outline = top of the funnel into Task 13.

Pain

Hair-on-fire vs vague annoyance.

Frequency

Weekly recurrence anchors retention.

WTP

Existing spend > new budget line.

Founder Fit

Insider insight beats market research.

Compounding

Moat that thickens over time.

Candidate A 7.65

Physio Billing Admin

Hair-on-fire pain, existing spend, real insider fit. Wins on the weights that matter.

Advances To Task 13

Candidate C 6.85

UK Construction VAT Recovery

Strong willingness to pay, but founder fit caves. Tourist score.

Founder Fit Gate

Candidate B 5.95

SaaS Release Notes

People want it; almost no founder budgets a line item. Classic vitamin problem.

Drop

1 Mechanical Solo Bootstrapped

Weighted Rubric

Score = Σ(w_i · s_i) , s_i ∈ 1–10

Pain 25%

Vitamins lose to painkillers.

WTP 25%

Existing spend > new budget.

Fit 25%

Unfair advantage breaks ties.

Market 10%

Small market caps ceiling.

Feasibility 10%

You + AI ship in 6–12 mo.

Compete 5%

Crowded ≠ disqualified.

2 Second Opinion

ICE — Cost Of Finding Out

I Impact

Upside if right.

C Confidence

Belief it works.

E Ease

Speed to validate.

Both High Strong candidate. Advances.

Rubric High · ICE Low Re-examine weights or gut.

ICE High · Rubric Low Missing criterion — interrogate.

3 Personal Gate

Five-Year Founder Fit

Insider Insight

Asymmetric know-how. Not "I read about it."

Five-Year Commit

Want this if no one paid you? Outcome ≠ pull.

Unfair Advantage

Distribution, monetisation, or deep tech — pick one.

4 External Calibration

Peers & Pre-Mortem

10-Point Distribution

3–5 diverse peers spread 10 points across your shortlist. Bimodal split = the interesting case.

AI Pre-Mortem

"It's May 2028. The venture failed. Why?" Prospective hindsight +30% (Klein, 2007).

Fatal+High → Kill Painful+High → De-risk